By now, you have heard about the historic start to the season for the Tampa Bay Rays. They are a perfect 13-0, and what’s even more incredible? They have covered the run line in 12 of those 13 wins.
Yes, eventually, some bettor will make a significant profit when the underdog pulls off the upset win vs. Tampa Bay, but here’s why we are rolling with the Rays to cover the run line one more time Friday night:
Jose Berrios.
On the surface, Toronto looks like the perfect club to finally upset the apple cart for the Rays, but I have a tough time backing the team that will be starting a pitcher with an ERA of over 11. I broke down why I’ve favored the over when Berrios pitches in my MLB betting trends article earlier this week, but now it also converges with the trend of the Rays covering the run line.
I’m not sure what exactly has happened with Berrios, but the fact is that hitters are seeing him well and hitting him hard — and this goes back to last season, when he pitched to an ERA of 5.23. This year, his average exit velocity allowed is in the bottom 20% of the league and his hard-hit rate is in the bottom 14%. Statcast says his xERA is 5.98, so we should expect the Rays to get their knocks in.
On the other side of this ballgame, Drew Rasmussen will get the start for the Rays. Rasmussen has not allowed a single earned run over 13 innings pitched this season while striking out 15. Statcast has his xERA at 1.19.
It’s a mismatch with the Rays also having a far superior bullpen.
Offensively, either team can erupt for plenty of runs in a given game, but the Rays’ 7.77 runs per game this year is more than two more than the Jays’ 5.58.
Eventually, the streak has to stop, but it won’t tonight.
Bet: Rays -1.5 (+115)